Findings
Recently released data from the 2005 American Community
Survey permit us to update our previous estimates of the undocumented
population by congressional district and to compare these
estimates with those from the 2000 census. Although the undocumented
population of the United States as a whole increased substantially
over these five years, trends in undocumented immigration
varied widely from district to district
In 2005, undocumented immigrants accounted for about 10
percent or more of the total population in only 27 (or roughly
6 percent) of the 435 congressional districts.
Conversely, undocumented immigrants comprised about 5 percent
or less of the population in more than half (or 232) of all
congressional districts in 2005.
Between 2000 and 2005, the undocumented population of 107
districts doubled, although most of these districts had relatively
few undocumented immigrants to begin with.
More strikingly, 39 districts experienced either a decline
or no change in their undocumented population between 2000
and 2005. Many of these districts had been major destinations
for new arrivals in the past, but are becoming less so as
immigrants move to other parts of the country.
Undocumented Immigrants are Settling in
New Areas
Increasingly, undocumented immigrants to the United States
are choosing to settle in new areas like North Carolina, Nebraska,
and Nevada rather than traditional immigrant destination states
such as New York, Florida, and California. For example, California
received almost 54 percent of all non-citizen Mexican immigrants
who arrived in the country in 1990-2000, but during the subsequent
2000-2005 period received only 18 percent of the national
total.
The district of Rep. Benjamin Cardin (D-3rd/MD) is an example
of a new immigrant settlement area with a growing number of
undocumented migrants. Representative Cardinšs district includes
parts of Baltimore as well as suburban areas north and south
of the city. The latest census data suggests that his district
has picked up approximately 18,000 undocumented immigrants
since 2000.
The settlement patterns of undocumented immigrants are changing
along with those of legal immigrants. A case in point is the
district of Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-47th/CA), located in Orange
County, which experienced a decline of about 18,000 undocumented
immigrants between 2000 and 2005. At the same time, the district's
foreign-born population as a whole fell by nearly 15,000,
and the Mexican foreign-born population in particular fell
by more than 10,000.
These shifting settlement patterns among immigrants raise
the question of how elected officials will respond to growing
numbers of undocumented constituents in their districts. These
immigrants are likely to remain in the United States for long
periods of time and warrant attention from local officials
charged with promoting economic and social development. Deciding
how to interact with and, indeed, represent undocumented constituents
and their families will be an increasingly important task
for many congressional representatives.
Methodology
To estimate the number of undocumented immigrants in congressional
districts, I begin with credible estimates of how many of
these immigrants live in the United States and use Census
Bureau data to distribute those numbers across districts.
For numbers of undocumented immigrants at that national level,
I use widely cited estimates of the number of undocumented
immigrants in the United States by world region of origin
in 2000 and 2005. To distribute the national estimates of
undocumented immigrants across congressional districts, I
use census data on the number of immigrants by world region
of origin and by the period during which when they entered
the United States. These data are available from the 2000
census for all congressional districts. For 2005, however,
the data were not available for 65 districts. For these districts,
I was unable to estimate the size of the undocumented population
in 2005.
As an example of how I use this distributive process to estimate
undocumented immigrants by congressional district in 2000,
the district of Rep. Ed Pastor (D-4th/AZ) received 2.5 percent
of all Mexican non-citizen arrivals who came to the U.S. in
the 1990-2000 period. I use this to assign 2.5 percent of
the national estimate of Mexican undocumented immigrants to
his district. This is a reasonable method because a large
portion of all undocumented Mexican immigrants arrived in
recent years, because undocumented immigrant settlement patterns
track those of legal immigrants, and because undocumented
immigrants are the majority of all Mexican immigrants reported
by the Census as having arrived in recent years. I distribute
immigrants from all major world regions by this same methodology
and use a similar procedure for 2005.
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